🔗 Share this article

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."

• Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
• Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.

However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.