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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd