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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.