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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|